Bold Playoff Predictions: 14 foolproof guarantees for the NBA post-season

This feature was first published in the 127th edition (2014 - No. 6) of SLAM China magazine. Here is original English version of the story.

Predicting the future can be a tricky business, but the hazy smog that separates reality from a close approximation of reality hasn’t stopped the tricky business of prediction to develop into the profitable business of forecasting. Cultures and beliefs around the world use varied zodiac methods to paint vague portraits of the future. If it’s not the Year of the Horse, then it’s the sign of the Aries. It is isn’t palm reader then its mystic octopuses or parrots making their guesses.

But all in all, no one really knows anything.

And when it comes to the NBA playoffs, even prophets like Nostradamus or Hong Xiuquan couldn’t exactly predict the winners from the losers and the team that would be lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy in mid-June.

The NBA has long had its famous prophecies, too. After winning the 1987 title, Pat Riley guaranteed a repeat at the Lakers’ championship parade. A year later, his guarantee was fulfilled with the NBA’s first successful title defense in 18 seasons. In 2005, Detroit Piston Rasheed Wallace successfully guaranteed (or ‘guaransheed’) that his team would win Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals after falling behind to the Heat. Everyone from Dikembe Mutombo in 2001 to Kobe Bryant last year have used guarantees as part of successful motivational tactics.

And then there are the stinkers, the wild guarantees that have gone way off to the embarrassment or ridicule of the forecasters. After LeBron James left Cleveland for Miami in 2010, Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert famously posted that his team would win a title before LeBron and the Heat. Four years since then, the Heat have won two titles and the Cavaliers have yet to make the playoffs. JR Smith guaranteed a championship for the Knicks in September, but the squad looked like a shell of itself all season. Going back to the two-time champs Heat and LeBron James: if their 2010 boasts are to be believed, Miami fans should be expecting, “Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven,” titles in the Big Three era.

It’s time for us fans to rebel against tall words of such false prophets. Which is why I’m bringing you 14 fool-proof, undeniable guarantees for the 2014 playoffs. In what is priming to be another year of unpredictable action in the post-season, here are the predictions that you can be sure to bet on.

1. Marco Belinelli will become famous

If there is any model of consistency in the league, it’s those Spurs. Every year, just when everyone assumes that San Antonio are going to be done and dusted, they rise and surprise and make us all into believers again. While big names like Dwight Howard, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, or Josh Smith made high-profile changes of scenery over the past year, the most-underrated pick-up might have been made by the Spurs when they signed Italian Marco Belinelli from the Bulls at the beginning of the season. Even though he’s “only” pouring in 11.6 points per game, Belinelli has been a perfect fit for his new team, stretching the floor with his hot three-point shooting (39.8 percent) and giving more space and opportunities for traditional big names in San Antonio like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, or Kawhi Leonard to dominate more efficiently. Last year, Danny Green broke all kinds of three-point records in the NBA Finals and briefly became a household name; as the Spurs go deeper into the playoffs again, expect the same from Belinelli this year.

2. Derek Fisher will hit one or more clutch shots

At 39, we know that he’s one of the oldest players in the league, a slow-footed, defensively-minus point guard who is already third in the pecking order at his position in his own team behind Russell Westbrook and Reggie Jackson. We know that he’s only like to play between 15-20 minutes a game for OKC in the playoffs as they aspire to ride behind Kevin Durant’s brilliance to an NBA title. But make no mistake: this old horse still has the experience and timing to hit the biggest shot at the game’s biggest moments. Already through the course of this season, Fisher has time and again stepped up for the Thunder in crunch-time minutes in their most crucial games. With five titles on his resume, Fisher has no fear of the big moment, and rivals are still shook from the famous 0.4 second shot he hit over the Spurs 10 years ago. Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Lamb and co will clearly have a bigger impact in the Thunder’s progress in the playoffs, but Fisher is guaranteed to have his number called for a big shot (or two) over the next two months.

3. The internet will run wild with Big Baby Davis jokes

Glen “Big Baby” Davis is not a thin human being. As a matter of fact, it still surprises many that, despite his tremendous girth he is still able to become an effective rotation player in the league. Davis’ departure from the Magic to the Clippers puts him further in the eyes of the mainstream media, and now, playing for one of the contenders in the West, there will be a lot more Big Baby sightings in the playoffs. Which also means that the ruthless (and hilarious) internet is going to run wild.

4. If Clippers play the Rockets, we will witness a Dwight vs. DeAndre Free Throw contest every fourth quarter

Dwight Howard of the Rockets and DeAndre Jordan of the Clippers are both tremendously athletic Centers, and both particularly talented on the defensive end of the floor. Howard has been one of the elite big men in the league for several years and Jordan has made a quantum leap this season under Doc Rivers. The trouble is: neither one is particularly gifted from the free throw line. Howard has shot an (improved) 54.8 percent from the line this season while Jordan is in an uglier territory of 44.9 percent. If the Clippers and the Rockets are to face each other in the playoffs, fans would get a chance to witness two fast rising teams in the West with outside shots at a title run. Unfortunately, both teams also possess weaknesses at the free throw line which are fully exploited by opponents. The “Hack-A-Shaq” strategy has been passed on to his generation where defenders are happy to hack Howard or Jordan and let them try and win the game from the charity stripe. It will be an exciting series, with some of the best talents in the league like Chris Paul, James Harden, Howard, and Blake Griffin going off against each other. But be warned, because fourth quarters are going to turn into a slugfest that will eventually be decided by ugly free throw contests by the two regularly-hacked Centers.

5. We will criticize Russell Westbrook for shooting too much

This has become an annual NBA tradition, magnified in the playoffs because of the importance of every game and every possession. Kevin Durant is perhaps the NBA’s most gifted, efficient, and effortless scorer, capable of leading the league in scoring (32.2 points per game) while not even taking more than 20 shots a game. While this season has forced KD to take more of the offensive load due to Russell Westbrook’s injury, the last full playoffs that the two played together (2012) saw Westbrook jack up more shots than even his prodigiously talented teammate. A whole world of NBA fans and media-persons exist and thrive in loud support of the Anti-Westbrook campaign, criticizing the talented point guard for his supposedly selfish game and for not giving the ball up to Durant more often. If the Thunder make a deep run again, expect those voices to get even louder.

6. Despite his over-shooting, we will be amazed at how unstoppable Russell Westbrook is

Despite all the criticisms, the hate, and the doubt, Mr Westbrook will once again remind us that he adds much more to his team than he subtracts. One of the most aggressive, passionate, and athletic guards in the league, Westbrook is the one who truly takes the Thunder from being a good team to a great one. If Durant is the head of the Thunder, Westbrook is the heart. It is his passion and fearlessness that will make every other team doubly afraid of facing OKC this postseason. Last year, Westbrook’s injury added too much extra pressure on KD; pressure which ultimately caused a surprise 4-0 sweep in the Second Round at the hands of the Grizzlies. This year, if Westbrook stays healthy, we will be reminded of why despite his faults he is ultimately one of the most unstoppable players in the NBA. He will attack, he will inspire, and yes, he will make life easy for Mr Durant.

7. One (or more) Chicago players will get hurt – and it won’t stop them

I’m depressed as I write this, but recent history hasn’t been kind to the Bullish Bulls. It all began with the ill-fated 2012 playoffs, where Derrick Rose suffered the injury that kept him out for over a year. A year later, with Rose still missing, the Bulls suffered losses of Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, and a foot injury that slowed down Joakim Noah, and yet they still kept battling on. Coach Tom Thibodeau has two strong coaching traits: a) to overplay his top rotation players fearlessly despite any risk of injury and b) to never let his players give up, no matter the circumstance. This year, Noah will be the heart and soul of a team that will battle every night, and the likes of Carlos Boozer, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Hinrich, DJ Augustin, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Tony Snell, and more will inspire fans every night. And even when one or more them suffers an injury, they will march on instilling fear in opponents with the same unchanging tenacity.

8. At least one time in the playoffs, Stephen Curry will have 25 points in a quarter

The playoffs are better with Stephen Curry than without him. A season ago, the NBA’s most explosive three-point shooter was still coming into his own on the international stage. A 50-point outburst against the Knicks and a couple of internet-stopping shooting spurts in the playoffs changed all that, as Curry quickly became one of the most exciting young stars in the league. Don’t expect that to change: whether or not the Warriors are able to make a real playoff run, Curry will remind the world that he belongs on the pedestal with the game’s greatest players. There are few moments more electrifying than a Curry hot streak. Twice in last year’s playoffs, Curry had 22 points in the third quarter. He’s going to do it again. I predict that, at least one time in this postseason, Curry will explode for 25 or more points in a single quarter. And yes, we can also note that his backcourt mate and ‘Splash Brother’ Klay Thompson will have some hot shooting nights, too.

9. The biggest X-Factors of the playoffs will be Dwyane Wade and Serge Ibaka

Ever since the Big Three was formed in Miami, Dwyane Wade has evolved from being the number one superstar to the league’s ultimate X-Factor. The Heat and their opponents know what to expect from LeBron James, who is the model of NBA consistency, and puts up impressive numbers even on his ‘off’ nights. Chris Bosh fits in the system too, and although he rarely dominates anymore, he consistently plugs in the holes needed in every game. Wade, suffering from various ailments and injuries, is the team’s Mr Unpredictable. On certain nights, he disappears, or worse, doesn’t even play to rest an ailment. On other nights, he outperforms every other player on court, including LeBron himself. For the Heat, as ever, if Wade has more good nights than bad ones, they are sure to challenge for a title again. Out West, I predict that the difference-maker will be OKC’s Serge Ibaka. Ibaka has the potential of being of the top post defenders in the conference and spread the floor the same way Bosh does on offense on his good nights, giving the Thunder their own Big Three. Unfortunately, Ibaka hasn’t been consistent with his big nights on a regular basis. The answer is simple: the Thunder will rarely lose games in which Ibaka – in addition to Durant and Westbrook – also plays like an All Star.

10. Somebody will hit Blake Griffin

Set it in stone. An opposing forward or Center (take your pick: Andrew Bogut, Jermaine O’Neal, Zach Randolph, Robin Lopez, Serge Ibaka, etc.) will get annoyed at Blake Griffin’s dominance and thunderous dunks and bring him down. Both players will get a technical and one of them will be ejected. All of this is a guarantee.

11. Paul Pierce – and not Deron Williams or Joe Johnson – will be the Nets’ best closer

Joe Johnson (32) and Deron Williams (29), both of whom are still at or near their primes, are the two highest scorers for the Nets. But when the chips are down and the team needs a hero, there will be a familiar old face closing out games for Brooklyn in the post-season. At 36, Paul Pierce is averaging career low points averages and minutes this season, but make no mistake, the limited minutes have only been a preservation tactic for the playoffs. While Williams is the team’s primary ball-handler and Johnson has a history of end-game heroics, the most effective member of the team against major rivals like the Heat or the Pacers will be ‘The Truth’, who will use his years of experience and smarts to create offense when most needed by his team.

12. We will question Erik Spoelstra’s decision-making

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. Despite guiding his star-studded Heat squad to three consecutive Finals and back-to-back titles, Coach Spoelstra still hasn’t earned the unanimous respect as a tactician that he deserves. That is chiefly because many believe that Spoelstra’s success has more been a factor of the brilliant talents that he coaches, and less because of his own talents. This is a major misconception: even a ‘superteam’ needs a super-coach, or at least, a good coach. We’ve seen several examples of big-name teams underachieving because the man at the top never figured out how to use the weapons in his arsenal. Spoelstra’s a tactical mastermind, and has done a marvellous job year after year at making the team an efficient offensive and defensive threat every post-season. That will happen again; but whenever Miami do lose games against teams that they should be better than paper (which is pretty much every other team in the league), Spoelstra will be faulted more than his players. That is his curse: a win is credited to the players, but a loss is the fault of the coach.

13. The Eastern Conference playoffs will be far closer than we originally expected

A few months ago, the Eastern Conference Finals were pretty much decided, and the other six teams to qualify for the playoffs were being mocked for being nothing more than practice rounds for the two giants of the conference, the Heat and the Pacers. The top two teams have held a lead over any other contender in the conference by a wide margin, and were barely challenged by any other Eastern side until recent weeks. But slowly, things have changed, and the margin between the top two and the rest has narrowed dramatically. Both the Heat and particularly the Pacers have suffered from worrying slumps at crucial junctures of the season. Meanwhile, the Nets have been the hottest team in the conference and are suddenly looking like a major second round threat to either of the top two. The Bulls – with the brave Joakim Noah leading the way – are a team never to be underestimated with the ability and will to upset anyone in a playoff series. The Raptors are a wildcard, play good defense, and will be an irritant for the contenders. And the other challengers aren’t looking as bad as they were earlier in the season. A Pacers vs. Heat Eastern Conference Final is still the most likely outcome; just don’t expect it to be an easy journey for either of the two.

14. This year’s Finals will not be as good as last year’s Finals

Sorry to disappoint everyone, but that is just a fact. Last year, we witnessed one of the greatest NBA Finals in recent memory. Two ultra-talented teams with opposing tactics and styles turned the game of basketball into athletic chess. Each move had a counter move, and each counter move was countered again. For seven games, the Heat and the Spurs were nearly inseparable. Both squads displayed the best of individual greatness and team chemistry, and in the end, only minor mistakes like missed free throws or a botched rebound, became the difference between a champion and a loser. In addition to all this, Ray Allen hit what will be remembered as one of the most important shots in the history of the game to tie up Game 6 and save the tile for Miami. It is near-impossible to repeat that kind of drama at the game’s highest stage again. The only exceptions are if a) LeBron and Durant face each other off to have 40-point triple-doubles every night, b) Every game of the Final is decided in overtime, or c) Bugs Bunny helps Michael Jordan dunk from halfcourt line to beat the Monstars at the buzzer and stop them from enslaving the Looney Tunes.

How the Lockout punctured NBA's brighest moment in India

There is no good time to have a lockout, but the timing of this particular shut-down of the NBA couldn't have been worse. The league was at its height of popularity and it featured an exciting group of popular veterans (Kobe, Garnett), incredible in-their-prime stars (LeBron, Wade, Nowitzki, Dwight Howard), talented youngsters breaking into the elite (Rose, Durant) and tantalising prospects for the future (Blake Griffin, John Wall). In addition, the NBA seemed to be becoming open and unpredictable again: Mavs, Heat, Bulls, Thunder, Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, etc all boasted formidable, exciting teams.

But for the NBA fan in India, the lockout couldn't have come at a worse time: the NBA was at the height of its popularity in India last season. For me, the feeling has been of taking a big bite of my favourite dish (Butter Chicken) to build an appetite, and then being robbed of eating it anymore, and instead staying hungry. Now multiply that feeling by a 100 and replace Butter Chicken with Test Cricket. That's the Lockout.

Rewind back to a year ago and you'll know what I'm talking about. The 2010-11 season couldn't have been better for NBA fans in India. Things started off on the highest note possible in the off-season itself, as India was visited by two of the best big players in the planet: Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol. If that wasn't enough, Gasol even brought the Larry O'Brien trophy with him to India. The NBA Trophy in INDIA!!! Even recalling that moment gives me the chills.

But hype for the upcoming season had already been built before Howard's and Gasol's visits, since a certain LeBron James decided to take his talents to South Beach, ie. join Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. The Heat became the most-talked-about team, for better or worse, even before playing a single game, and all eyes followed them through every move in the season. This influence wasn't lost in India, obviously, as more fans than ever joined in the excitement and anticipation of what the Heat will bring in the new season. A couple of other off-season moves - Amare to Knicks; Boozer to Bulls - added to the intrigue.

And then the season started, and to the delight of Indian fans, it was soon announced that the NBA will be showing four live games a week on Indian TV - on Sony PIX and Ten Sports - after signing deals with both the channels. And then, this number went up to five, and near the end of the season, it was up to six. Six live games in India every week! I was getting no sleep, waking up at wee hours of the morning every single day, and it was okay! By playoffs time, we were watching nearly every game live. It was certainly the golden age.

Of course, the NBA continued to increase its programming and web presence specifically for the Indian audience, showing a clear interest in catering to the growing legions of fans here. There were several NBA-themed shows on TV, and the NBA's India website featured regular blogs from fans in India - including a bi-weekly blog by me - in addition to promoting players/teams via social networking in India.

Wait, I'm not done: things got even better when the NBA announced that they would be releasing authentic NBA jerseys for fans across India! There were only a few available because of the first-time launch - Kobe, LeBron, Dwight, and Garnett - but it was a start.

By the end of the season, Chris Paul had chatted with Indian fans online and Brandon Jennings had also come to India. Things were real good.

We had already been spoiled as fans: So to see exciting individual and team performances live in our Indian living rooms in the playoffs was an incredible cherry on the top. Compared to the LeBron/Kobe bandwaggoners, their may have been fewer Mavericks, Thunder, or Bulls fans in the country, but rest assured, these teams and their superstar players gained several popularity points by the time the season ended.

It was all good... Until... Well, until look-at-where-we-stand-now...

And now, here we are: It's mid-November, a period that should be about two weeks into the 2011-12 NBA season, but instead of seeing Wade and LeBron and Kobe and Carmelo Anthony, we see David Stern, Adam Silver, and Billy Hunter. I've stopped thinking of Derek Fisher as the clutch Lakers starting point guard and started thinking of him as a lawyer in a suit.

The optimists say that the deal is near. That if the players agree to the NBA's latest offer, the league should start by December 15th. The pessimists say that the players are unhappy with the offer and could decertify from the union instead, sending progress way back again. Either way, the damage has been done, and there's no NBA on TV, no scores to follow on the internet, no real sporting news to discuss with fellow fans.

After a season of its highest point in connecting, engaging, and interesting Indian fans, the NBA is seemingly on an Anna Hazare inspired maun vrath - a vow of silence. I'm sure a lot of new fans were made last season, and a lot of casual fans became serious fans, and a lot of serious fans (like me) went downright neurotic (in a good way!). The thing about casual fans, though, is that they need constant reminders to be kept hooked before getting reeled in to join the hardcore fans. With a long locked out summer, with no rumours, no big free agent signing, no trades, no preaseson, no dunks, no game-winners, nothing, it becomes difficult to keep the casual fan hooked on.

Recently, in a poll done by PollPosition.com, 76 percent of American fans showed signs of switching off from the league, saying that they don't miss the NBA. 12% had no opinion about it, and only 12% said that they were missing the league.

But it isn't just the American market where the NBA may be losing fan support: The NBA has a massive international following, bigger than all the other major American sporting leagues (NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS). It is this following that actually helps the NBA remain as rich as it is, and it might actually be the most important factor when determining it above the other leagues mentioned above. Since the lockout, international fans are also a devastated bunch, and it'll be depressing to see more casual fans from across the world lose interest in the product when it does return.

Of course, the serious fans are hurt too: It's impossible to look past the sham when your favourite league and your favourite players begin a very public and bitter dispute against each other. We feel disillusioned that our favourite game, our favourite league, could be stopped by men in Meeting Rooms.

Will everything go back to normal once (and if) the season does begin? Will we easily get distracted by the six live games on TV every week to remember how barren and crappy this lockout was? Will Kevin Durant or Paul Pierce visit India and be received with the same enthusiasm as the fans as Dwight and Pau were last year? Will jersey sales increase?

Perhaps, yes, because at the end of the day, the NBA provides an incredibly exciting and addictive product, which, if you are reading this blog, you are most likely in love with. You and I will both be happy when and if the NBA returns no matter what, and with the current crop of talent and excitement around the league, you and I will most likely forgive the months we spent in the NBA Dark Ages during the lockout. It will be like forgiving and accepting a loved one back again after they have done you wrong, because no matter what you did, you still love them.

But it's not all that simple, is it? Because forgiving something doesn't mean that the bitter taste of betrayal has been washed out of your mouth. We'll be happy to have your beloved NBA back, yes, we'll forgive what we missed out as fans, but we aren't going to forget this summer.

The NBA was on the cusp of a breakthrough internationally this year, especially in India, and its phenomenonal progress was brought to a screeching halt by the cursed lockout. Let's hope that it can soon get back on track, and get back to blowing our minds again.

A Hooponic Plague

It was a classic case of self-denial: we've all done it, and we've all suffered by it. It is a common human reaction to clear upcoming tragedy and depression to pretend that it's not really happening, to distract ourselves with other matters, to imagine that it couldn't really last that long.

By a matter of sheer coincidence, I happen to be re-reading 'The Plague', the English translation of the French novel by my favourite author, Albert Camus. In this haunting, existential novel, the residents of a small French town are forced to come to terms with the reality that something of a bubonic plague is killing off hundreds of their fellow men and women daily, and forcing the town into a complete shutdown, or a 'lock' down, if you like.

But what is more interesting than the tragedy is the delayed reaction to the tragedy: until it hits him where it personally hurts, most of the townspeople in the story refuse to buck down and change their normal mentality and way of life: they go on passing through their lives in complete denial of the fact that one by one they will be losing their lives or the lives of their loved ones, and that the rest of their loved ones outside the town have been locked out, away from them, perhaps never to see them again.

Let's leave fiction behind and awaken back to our much-kinder reality: With the new CBA deadline approaching, there were whispers of an NBA Lockout over a year ago, which I had scoffed at and suppressed, focused more with the exciting storylines of the new NBA season: the three-headed monster that became the Miami Heat, the dramatic rise of Derrick Rose, and the Knicks' return to relevance. The whispers got louder as the season progressed, but louder still were Blake Griffin's dunks, Carmelo Anthony's trade to New York, and every bit of useless information that was fed to us about the over-scrutinised Heat. As the season reached its conclusion, I was left in awe after an incredible, unpredictable two months of the playoffs, where the Thunder and the Grizzlies surprised, the Lakers, Celtics, and Spurs fell too early, LeBron James choked, and Dirk and the Mavs rose against all odds to the promised land. It was an amazing end to an amazing season. Bad News Lockout Bears be damned.

Until the lockout actually happened. With the CBA deadline passing on July 1, 2011, we were officially in a lockout. The whispers were really loud now, too hard to ignore because there was little else going on in the NBA calender in the off-season. I heard everyone from David Stern and Adam Silver to Billy Hunter and Derek Fisher tell me that this was going to be a long haul, a gap too far apart to bridge easily. It was going to take hours of meetings and money talk and men in suits and other stuff that sports fan don't want to understand.

But it still didn't feel real. I mean, all that we missed in July were player photographs/mentions on the NBA's official sites. The offseason wasn't supposed to have any games anyways, so how was a lockout going to change anything, right?

Still in denial.

There was a little more missing this off-season. Rumours. Ideas. Possibilities. What ifs. What if such-and-such team sign this-and-that free agent? What if Team A trade injury-ridden-star to Team B for selfish-star? Who will be the team to watch this season? Who will be the most improved player? Which rookie will make the biggest difference? Etc. Etc. Etc. These were all the type of questions I wondered and discussed every off-season, but this time, the conversations seemed awfully hollow. Every sentence was prefixed with 'If the lockout ends...': If the lockout ends, Kevin Durant will become the best player in the league. If the lockout ends, the Heat will have the best chance to win a championship. If the lockout ends, Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Jimmer Fredette will back the Kings the league's new up-and-coming team to watch.

But the Lockout was showing no signs of end, or even any signs of subsiding. The blows from both sides: the NBA and the NBA Players Association (NBPA) came harder and harder, and the effects were felt more and more with each passing day, with each day that the sides came closer to not sorting this shit out. Fans were anticipating men in suits at meetings like they anticipated their favourite players showing up on the court, except that the new anticipation was annoying, boring, and downright depressing.

I still didn't let it get to me though: I followed everything that happened, all the agreements that weren't made, and I still chose to remain emotionally unaffected. It still wasn't hitting close enough to home yet.

And just like that, we were in October. And instead of training camps and Media Days around the league, I heard crickets.

The pre-season which was supposed to start on October 9th, got cancelled: first by two weeks, and then completely. For something I had been expecting for months, I was still shocked. But hell, it's only the pre-season right? The games don't count, anyways.

But on October 10th, a day into the non-happening pre-season, I, and every other NBA fan on the planet, felt the first real torturous blows of this entire messy affair. After another long NBA/NBPA meeting yesterday, the NBA cancelled the first two weeks of the regular season, which was slated to begin on November 1st. That's a 100 games across the league cancelled, vanished, poof into thin air.

Until recently, the percentages being fought over, the zeroes at the end of the contracts, the number of millions being lost and gained here and there, were just that: numbers. Just like the casualty numbers collected and announced by the doctor in 'The Plague', unfeeling and unrelatable. But with actual games being missed, it's all too real: it's not about which side gets what percentage, it's about no Bulls vs Mavericks on November 1st, no showdown of Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant on the first day of the season, no sign of seeing the full-strength Heat take on the resurgent Knicks the next day, no one for Blake Griffin to dunk on, no one for Kevin Garnett to intimidate, and no sign of a Laker running up and down the court with the words 'World Peace' on his back.

Two weeks isn't much you say. Well, it is enough to end my delayed reaction, my denial to his Hooponic Plague. What makes it worse is that the two sides are no closer to an agreement. In his story for Yahoo! Sports today, Adrian Wojnarowski quoted players and GMs saying things such as “We remain very, very apart on all issues,” “We have a gulf that separates us," and “I think the best-case scenario now is 50 games, but I can see the whole season gone."

It's happened. We are not just missing rumours, or photographs on a website, or practice, or exhibition matches: we are missing NBA games. And by the looks of it, we will be missing many more. It's like 1998 all over again, and I really hope it's not worse than that last lockout.

Perhaps its time for me to take the stance that the NBPA's president Derek Fisher took after yesterday's meetings, and be realistic about what has been coming this way for over a year. “We anticipated being in this situation,” Fisher said, “and here we are.”

Games are lost, and we could continue losing them. No amount of charity defense-less dunk-fests, street-ball 50-point outbursts, exhibition all-star games, WNBA, foreign hoops, college hoops or anything else can replace the sadness of losing NBA games.

We need this resolved fast, so start praying to your Gods now: I'm turning to Camus and Michael Jordan.

Locked Out

A year ago today was one of my most optimistic days as an NBA fan. July 1, 2010, when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, and a whole host of others became free agents. My favourite team, the New York Knicks, had the money to afford two of these guys, and although we were able to snag 'only' Amar'e to New York in the end, there was that exciting potential of this many talented guys shuffling things around a little.

That summer, which I previewed in my article on July 1, 2010: the 'Summer of 2010', turned out to be more explosive than expected, and taking the cue from July, every month of the NBA Calender there onwards, July 2010 - June 2011, became more and more exciting. LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade teamed up to make the most hyped/hated/talked-about 'SuperTeam' in Miami. The Knicks got Amar'e, and in a mid-season trade, got Carmelo Anthony, instantly bringing back excitement to New York. Boozer joined the Bulls, and became an important piece in their significant improvement last season to end up with the best regular season record in the NBA.

From then onwards, it was as if the NBA's wildest marketing fantasies came true, one after the other. All of the league's biggest markets - Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Chicago, and Boston became relevant. The NBA featured the perfect mix of old school stars (Garnett, Ray Allen, Kobe, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash), in-their-prime stars carrying the hype of the league (LeBron, Wade, Nowitzki, Kobe, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard), and great young stars looking primed to make sure that the NBA remains in good hands in the future (Durant, Rose, Griffin). Yes, I know I put Kobe in two lists up there, simply because he's old school and still a marquee name.

You know what else went right? Pretty much everything short of a dream Lakers-Heat Final. The All Star Game got great ratings, a home-team superstar performance by Kobe Bryant, and a grand show by Blake Griffin which included an over-the-car dunk. The playoffs were one of the most exciting ever, getting the fans to believe that the NBA is not as predictable as cynics say it is. And the Mavs winning out in the end was a karmic finish (for those who like things coming full circle and all that) for Nowitzki, a feel good win for team-oriented, "nice guy" play against the three-headed Rakshas over at Miami. Teamplay beat individual brilliance, and it seemed nearly the entire world (except for Heat fans) were happy about this.

Oh, and did I mention that the Finals ratings were amongst the highest in the decade? Did I mention that, despite a poor draft class, this year's draft got the highest TV rating ever? Despite a bad economy in the US, crowds still rushed to watch the NBA games.

I can keep going on: internationally, the league kept the fans on its toes and connected better than ever before. The NBA became the biggest sports league since the English Premier League. The NBA marketed itself brilliantly worldwide, and got all the positive responses.

Simply put: until yesterday, the league was officially in one of the best positions it has ever been, primed to have another legendary, hugely anticipated season.

That is just one way to look at it.

Because the undercurrents to this all was a serious, rising threat of an NBA lockout. No matter how much hype you saw around you, there was always a sobering article somewhere, reminding us that the CBA negotiations were not going well, that the two sides were far apart, that a lockout was near inevitable. I didn't believe it of course - I'm a damned optimist, and when I read anything that depresses me even a little bit, I can't pay attention to it. The words skim over my head and I quickly distract myself with something else.

Unfortunately, I can't distract myself any longer, nor can I ignore this reality. July 1, 2011, exactly a year after that summer of optimism, begins the summer of depression. The NBA announced that it will commence a lockout of its players, effective at 12:01 AM ET on July 1, 2011 until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached with the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA).

What does this mean for us?

It means, possibly, maybe, no Summer League in July. Possibly No Pre-Season in October. Possibly no NBA Regular Season in November. And if things look really bad (they do), then say goodbye to any basketball until later next year.

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The word 'Lockout' brings out 2 memories to my mind. The first is from my favourite basketball related movie of all time, Space Jam, where the NBA had to lock-out the 1995 season because the aliens from Moron Mountain stole the talents of Patrick Ewing, Charles Barkley, Larry Johnson, Muggsy Bogues and Shawn Bradley to beat Michael Jordan and the Loony Toons, aka the 'Toon Squad'.

The second memory is slightly more real, when the NBA locked-out FOR REAL after Michael Jordan retired (if you didn't know, MJ runs everything basketball. Now you know) in 1998. The 1998-99 season started a little late, and only two-thirds of the regular season was played. The playoffs included a dream run by the Knicks to become the first eighth-seeded team to make the Finals, which were eventually won by the Duncan/Robinson Spurs, and sparked the beginning of one of the most consistent teams in NBA basketball.

That 1998-99 season was the first real season that I closely followed NBA basketball. That was the season where I could call myself a real fan, not just a casual over-hearer of news. And of course, because of the Knicks' amazing run that year, that the the season that made me a fan of NYK.

For Knicks fans like me, it's been downhill ever since, all until, ironically, today, when the Knicks are relevant again, and we face yet another lockout. CRAP.

So as a fan, NBA basketball has come full circle, starting with the last lockout and peaking with this one, before it all comes crumbling down again. I blame everyone involved. I blame David Stern (NBA Commissioner) for not softening his approach to the players. I blame Billy Hunter (NBPA Executive Director) for not softening his approach to the owners. I blame the players for not accepting lesser money. I blame the owners (who say that 22 out of 30 NBA teams are losing money) for being greedy.

The reality is of course several times more complicated than my super-simplified version in the paragraph above. I actually feel that I'm disrespecting the complexity of the negotiations by that simplified above paragraph. But no matter how deep you go into the issues, it all comes back to the basic, painful truth: there might not be any NBA games in the recent future. Not David Stern, or Billy Hunter, or the Lakers' Derek Fisher (President, NBPA), or the owners, all the other millionaire men in shiny black suits, or and millionaire athletes in fresh NBA jerseys... The lockout will hurt someone else much, much more.

The fans.

For the fans, the formula is simple. You can't see your favourite teams and your favourite players perform at the highest level. Until things get figured out, there will be no more excitement of trades this offseason, no one checking to see if rookies are developing, no teams getting upgraded, no faces of NBA players on any NBA websites (this one hit me HARD - check out NBA.com).

And worst of all, there will be no NBA basketball.

Sniff.